Where Will LeBron Go?

The LeBron James sweepstakes has begun. Where will he end up is anyone's guess. That he will make a lot of money wherever he goes is not a question. According to reports on ESPN, he is planning to meet with two teams a day until he makes his decision. He met with the Nets and Heat today already.

LeBron James wants one thing, to win. He will make a lot of money no matter where he goes, so he isn't as concerned with that as he is a ring, if you believe comments he's made in the media. The hiring of Byron Scott to be the coach of the Cavaliers puts an interesting wrinkle into this whole situation. Who wouldn't feel bad for the new coach if LeBron goes elsewhere? Talk abut missing the boat...

The Cavs can win, they are built to win, but they need him to do it. The Knicks can sign two top level free agents, reports suggest they are targeting Bosch and James. The Nets can also sign two as well. The Heat can sign all three, so can the Bulls, according to various reports. The Cavs are serious about winning, they are serious because they need to show that to keep the most popular player in the league who also happens to be the most important player in the history of their franchise.

Of course this, just like any other report, is pure speculation. the only guy who knows what he wants to do is the man himself. Maybe he just wants the Cavs to sweat it out. He's from Akron, Cleveland is his town. Though he is a huge fan of Michael Jordan and New York; and close friends with Jay-z (part of the Nets ownership group), he might just decide to stay home for a few more years. It's not like this will be the last FA contract he signs.

LeBron to Knicks would add $150MM to Team's Value?

According to a report in Crain's New York Business, the signing of LeBron James could add $150 million dollars to the market cap of Madison Square Garden Inc, the parent company of the New York Knicks. Every time the mention of him signing with the Knicks comes within a wiff of the stock market, it's ticker jumps. The stock is so sensitive to the possibility of LeBron heading to NY that it jumped 12% when the Cleveland Cavaliers, his most recent team, lost their playoff series against the Boston Celtics.

Currently, the Knicks are one of the worst teams in the NBA. The past couple of years have not been kind to their fans as they shed the outsized contracts of players like Stephon Marbury, Jared Jeffries, Jerome James, Allan Houston and others that took up more space on the bench, disabled list and the payroll than they did on the stat sheet or all star team. The shedding of those contracts has provided the team with $35 million in salary cap room, more than enough to sign King James or two other top tier free agents.

For a fan base used to winning and expecting it every year this was a shock to the system. Fans stopped going to games and stopped watching the team on their MSG Network. The team disappeared from national telecasts it used to be prominently featured in just as quickly as it slid out of playoff contention.

The thought is that anyone, not just LeBron James, anyone signed to a contract representing an improvement over the current collection of players that would be on the island of misfit toys, were this a Christmas special, would represent an upgrade and cause more cash flow into the team. Higher TV ratings would mean more advertising revenue; more competitive games would mean more people in the seats at the Garden; eventually they could even raise ticket prices when they make the playoffs. A planned $850 million dollar renovation will also help bring fans into the outdated arena for at least a season. In addition to 78 new luxury suites, there will be 40% more points of sale for concessions that should add t to the bottom line.

That would be great for MSG shareholders, but signing LeBron would be like investing in an exploratory oil drilling company shortly before it makes its first big find. Currently, according to Forbes, the franchise is valued at $586 million. That value could rise as high as $736 million should LeBron come to the Knicks says Patrick Rishe, a professor of economics at Webster University and director of consulting firm Sports Impacts. This would come in the form of an immediate $10-$20 million boost in revenue and the rise in TV ratings that having the most dynamic player in the NBA on the team would provide. Not to mention that boost in advertising inside the arena because of the increased exposure of the team being on national TV again as well.

In summary, the gains would come from sponsorships, higher ticket prices, playoff games, eventual subscriber fee increases from cable and satellite operators—and rocketing ad rates on the MSG Network, the company's main source of profits according to Crain's.

Overall, according to Crain's, the company has performed reasonably well considering the difficulty of the Knicks to field a competitive team. In its first quarter since it was spun off from Cablevision Systems Corp., the new company's revenues rose 9% over the year-earlier period to $307 million. It had net income of $17 million, compared with a loss of $2 million in the first quarter last year. Its stock has risen 16% since its February debut, closing at $21.48 on Friday.

The arena bills itself as the "World's Most Famous Arena" has no real competition just yet. Not until the Nets move into the Barclay's Center in Brooklyn anyway. That's when they will need a star like LeBron to draw the crowds investors in MSG Inc will expect, new Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov is playing for keeps.

Long Term Contracts, Good or Bad?

Every off season there are a few free agents that are the cream of the crop, the top of the food chain. Those that command high priced, long term deals that allow them to have the financial security that they need and guarantees to the team paying them that their prized possession will be their's for an extended period of time. When these deals are signed both sides are all smiles and everyone is optimistic about the future. More often than not though, things sour before the end of the deal. In light of the Albert Haynesworth fiasco, its time to ask a simple question: why do teams and athletes keep doing this to themselves?

First, we have to look at free agency from the beginning. Before free agency, teams owned their players like indentured servants. They paid them what they felt like paying them and the players had to take it or leave it. Some of the best players of past generations had to work all off season to be able to pay their bills, hall of fame Yankees had off season jobs selling suits in men's stores in the 50s, unthinkable to athletes these days.

In the 70s a revolution of sorts happened in Major League Baseball, Free Agency. Players all of a sudden had the freedom to play wherever they chose and were able to dictate how much they made instead of the other way around. Reggie Jackson was the first major player on the free agent the market. Being the best player of his day he used this leverage to sign a record contract to leave the Baltimore Orioles and join the NY Yankees for $2,960,000 over 5 years. He repaid them by helping them to two titles and three world series over those 5 seasons and then left acrimoniously to play for the Angels. Free agents have had results as mixed as Reggie since his days in the Bronx Zoo.

Derek Jeter signed a 10 year $189 million dollar contract with the Yankees before the 2001 season started. Since then he has been a 7 time all star, 4 time gold glove winner, 4 time silver slugger, world champion, and recorded his 3000th career hit (becoming both the all time MLB leader in hits for a shortstop and passing Lou Gherig as the Yankees all time hit leader). From both points of view this was a great deal. Derek Jeter is the consummate professional, is the face of the franchise, has not had off the field issues like other athletes and ranks among the highest paid athletes in the world, hardly a bust.

Jason Giambi signed a 7 year $120 million dollar contract only a year later and did not have quite the same experience as Jeter. Not only did Jason Giambi become a symbol for steroid use after confessing both in court during the BALCO case and publicly during a press conference, but his production had more ups and downs than his relationship with Yankee fans. He justified his high contract by hitting .314 with 41 HR and 122 RBI. After that his time with Yankees was nothing short of a disaster with inconsistent power, almost no ability to hit the opposite way, an inability to run and what was the worst glove of any first baseman in baseball by the time he left. He also won no titles while with the Yankees, which happens to be a problem with their fans. He turned into one of the biggest free agent busts in recent memory.

Rick DiPietro was drafted first overall by the Islanders in the 2000 entry draft. After a few inconsistent season of bouncing back and forth between the IHL, AHL and NHL he signed a 15 year $67.5 million dollar contract, officially the longest contract in sports history. He is unique in doing so because he never tested the free agent market and did not appear to gauge his value to other teams. Since then he has not played an entire season because his being often injured and his play has ranged from him being named to an all star team to giving fits to Islanders fans with his lack of on ice awareness. He is not quite a bust yet, but that is only because he still has more than a decade to prove himself worthy of what is a below market contract.

This brings us to Albert Haynesworth. He first came into the national consciousness by stomping a Dallas Cowboy in the face with his cleats during the 2006 season. For that he received the longest suspension in NFL history, 5 games (out of 16) without pay. It was the opinion of many that he should have been suspended the rest of the season.

On the first day of free agency during the 2009 off-season, he agreed to a 7 year $100 million dollar contract ($41 million guaranteed and $32 million paid in the first 13 months) with the Washington Redskins. It took him only one season to wear out his welcome. He often came off the field looking winded appearing to take himself out of plays only now admitting because of how out of shape he was. All last season he said he had an injured ankle or knee in spite of it being obvious he was simply overweight.

One would think that after having admitted he played overweight and out of shape, he would feel a sense of remorse and that he owes both the Redskins and their fans a debt a gratitude. That he should show up in the shape of his life and play like he is being paid to play, as the best DT in the league. Instead, he cashed his $21 million roster bonus on April 1st and refuses to show up for mandatory off-season workouts because he does not like the defensive scheme of Jim Haslett, the new defensive coordinator since it does not allow him to be the impact player that only he still sees himself as.

Does this sound familiar? It should. Last season he complained about the defensive scheme as well, saying that he could not "survive another season in this system if it stays the way it is." Two seasons, two defensive schemes and nothing but complaints. It sounds to me like he has lost the motivation to play the game and just wants the lifestyle instead of working for it like everyone not named Jamarcus Russell.

He has alienated many in the NFL, including his own teammates, former NFL players, fans and his new coach Mike Shanahan. Anyone with a microphone or a Twitter account in front of them has said that his actions are selfish, classless and show his true lack of moral character. Shanahan tried to trade him in the deal that brought former Philadelphia Eagles franchise QB Donovan McNabb to the Redskins and was laughed out of the room. He has since publicly stated that he told Haynesworth he would release him if that's what he wanted.

Instead, Albert told his coach he was committed to the 'Skins and took the $21 million roster bonus without showing for any team activities. Clearly, he is not committed to the team and only wanted owner Dan Snyder's money. Quoth Darnell Dockett via his Twitter account: “Did I just hear this correctly? Albert Haynesworth will not be (at) mandatory minicamp? And he wants a trade? After signing 100 millon dollar contract?” He then followed up with “That’s why I tell y’all I’m nothing like these dudes. For 100 million my ass will play 4-3, 3-4, 5-9, 4-8 and still whip ass!”

The Redskins obviously have a problem on their hands. They have a player that does not want to be there anymore who they signed to a contract larger than anyone will pay the remainder of to whom they just paid a $21 million roster bonus. They could release him, but $21 million is a large matzoh ball to leave stuck in your throat. That Haynesworth has never been happy in DC is obvious, that he chased the money is also crystal clear. This could be the largest bust in NFL history if it is not sorted out soon.

What to do next? Any ideas? The Redskins have none, Albert is content to sit out and further alienate every and any one, he's been paid. Athletes should sign one or two year contracts that allow them the flexibility to determine their future and still make the money they demand from teams. This would insulate them against coaching/franchise ownership changes, perhaps not liking their situation (ala Milton Bradley with the Cubs) or simply not fitting in. Sign a one year deal with a team, if you like the situation sign a 5 year deal in the next off season.

Then again, what to do if you are an elite athlete who is injured at the end of your two year deal and are unable to continue your career? This is a question no one has a reasonable solution for, whoever can come up with one will hit the jackpot.